Premiership
Preview.co.uk takes a look ahead to the titanic tussle at
Villa Park and pinpoints the best prices for those of you who enjoy a flutter.

Aston Villa v Chelsea

Saturday 21^st February
12.45pm ko Live on Sky

H2H

HOME/AWAY AVERAGES (LAST 20 GAMES)

ASTON VILLA – HOME

CHELSEA – AWAY

H2H (LAST 5 SEASONS – 11 LEAGUE GAMES)

THIS SEASONS GOAL AVERAGES PER
GAME

CURRENT FORM

ASTON VILLA - LAST FIVE
GAMES

CHELSEA - LAST FIVE GAMES

TEAM NEWS

Martin Laursen, Carlos Cuellar, Wilfred Bouma and
Nigel Reo-Coker are all ruled out for Villa.

Emile Heskey and James Milner are both
doubtful.

Chelsea's Joe Cole is out for the season and
Michael Essien will not return for another month.

Ashley Cole is suspended. Alex and Ricardo Carvalho are both doubts for
Chelsea.

Villa Squad: Friedel, Guzan, Gardner,
Davies, Knight, L Young, Shorey, Milner, Petrov, Barry, Sidwell, A Young,
Osbourne, Salifou, Agbonlahor, Heskey, Carew, Delfouneso, Harewood.

Chelsea Squad: Cech, Hilario, Taylor,
Ferreira, Bosingwa, Ivanovic, Alex, Mancienne, Lampard, Mikel, Ballack, Deco,
Kalou, Malouda, Quaresma, Anelka, Drogba, Stoch,
Belletti.

TOP SCORERS (LEAGUE ONLY)

ASTON VILLA CHELSEA

THE ORACLE'S MATCH PRICES (100%
BOOK)

ASTON VILLA 3/1 25%

DRAW 21/10 32%

ANALYSIS

MATCH:

Guus Hiddink has been handed a difficult first
fixture in charge away to an Aston Villa side unbeaten in thirteen league games.
Villa are also unbeaten at home to Chelsea in ten matches, a run that stretches
back to 1999. Hiddink takes over the reins at Stamford Bridge after previous
boss Phil Scolari managed just four wins in twelve league games. The Blues are
now ten points adrift in the title race and have little chance of catching Man
Utd. Part of the reason the last two managers failed was Chelsea's poor record
against the other top Premiership sides, especially away from home. Chelsea have
managed just two away wins form thirteen matches against top six
opposition.

However, before you rush out to back Aston Villa, it
is worth bearing the following stats in mind. Villa have drawn six of their
twelve home games which is the most in the division. They have also won just one
of their last eleven fixtures against "big four" opposition at Villa Park,
failing to score in four of the last six. Their three other home games against
the big four this season have all finished in draws and I think another
stalemate looks to be on the cards.

Villa look to be running out of steam a little bit to
me. They were taken to a replay by Doncaster in the FA cup before being knocked
out by Everton last week. They were held at home by CSKA in the UEFA cup on
Thursday night and were also held to a goal less draw by Wigan in their last
Premiership home game. Martin O'Neill has only used nineteen players in the
league this season which is the fewest number of any Premiership club. I think
tiredness is beginning to creep in and they are starting to pick up injuries
too. Whilst the draw looks the best bet, I think Chelsea could be a slight
danger too, so I am only recommending one point.

GOALS:

Whilst both sides have averages pretty much in line
with the league's 2.5 goals per game, the figures for both teams drop
dramatically when they face other top half sides. Four of Villa's five games
against the big four this season featured two goals or fewer. Chelsea on the
other hand have seen two goals or fewer in ten of their last thirteen games away
to top six sides. Eight of the last eleven meetings between the two have also
featured two goals or less. The stats point heavily to a low scoring game and
this always improves the chances of a draw. The 1-1 correct score at 6/1 might
be worthy of a small interest.

GOALSCORERS:

As a result of the low goals expectancy for this game
there isn't much value to be had in backing goal scorers in this game. Coral are
stand out prices on several players however. If you want a bet in this market
then I'd pick from Anelka (7/1), Agbonlahor (15/2) or Lampard (10/1) to score
the first goal. Keep your stakes small though.

RECOMMENDATIONS

1pt Draw 12/5 Skybet and
Boylesports

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