Who will hit the top and who will beat the drop this season?

Football FanCast guest columnist David Gold looks at the runners and riders of the Barclays Premier League for this season.

The phrase 'this season promises to be closer than ever' is probably overused. We say it every year. 'Oh yes but this year will be even better than last'. And when it isn't, the next year we'll say that it can't fail to be better than its preceding campaign. Hyperbole and football journalism have become quite well acquainted over recent years.

This year though, something is different. The top two sides of the last few years, Manchester United and Chelsea, have lost key players. In United's case it is Cristiano Ronaldo and to a lesser extent, Carlos Tevez. Whilst teams such as Arsenal and United themselves have thrived in times past when Thierry Henry and Eric Cantona left, there is a difference this time. And it's not just the Gallic theme. Ronaldo scored 42 goals for United the year before last, often scoring winning goals, and setting up countless others. His contribution was almost superhuman.

With Chelsea, they've lost Guus Hiddink. Whilst they have gained a quality coach in Carlo Ancelotti, the Hiddink effect cannot be underestimated. Chelsea were poor last year before he came in. That isn't a reflection of the squad, but the importance of the manager. Hiddink has a phenomenal record; taking Holland and South Korea to World Cup semis in successive campaigns, and guiding Russia to the same stage of the European Championships suggests he is more than simply a cup manager, or a lucky manager. He is a gifted manager. To lose him is a factor that has been alarmingly underrated. Ancelotti is a top class coach, yes, but on Hiddink's level? I'm not sure he is. I think he'll do well, but not instantly.

Liverpool may have lost Alonso but they've gained Aquilani, and in reality are weakened less than their rivals. Arsenal have lost Touré and Adebayor, and though these two have been key players for the club, they were poor last year and symptomatic of many of the team's problems. From a year ago, Arsenal have Arshavin, Rosicky, Eduardo and Vermaelen looking at playing a significant part in the season ahead. With a talented young squad a year older and wiser, demonstrated by their long unbeaten run last season (the longest of any side in the division), the Gunners are stronger.

So the top four should be fairly close.

And relegation? Well, it's slightly easier to predict. Portsmouth are a club in decline, with mounting debts, and unable to afford to sign any new players who aren't free transfers or loans. With the likes of David James and Sylvain Distin temptingly staring at the exit door, this side are likeable enough, but are weakening at a time when the league is getting stronger.

Hull City may have finished last season poorly, but they may not be as poor this year as they were in the second half of the last campaign. They have brought in Jozy Altidore, a striker who, as anyone who paid attention to the Confederations Cup will tell you, has the ability to cause problems. He was crucial in the USA's victory over a strong Spanish side, and he has the pace and power required to succeed in the Premiership. They have also signed Seji Olofinjana and with Jimmy Bullard returning from injury, they have a stronger squad than the one who survived last year.

As for the promoted sides, Wolves and Birmingham are most people's favourites to avoid the drop at Burnley's expense. Mick McCarthy's side were strong last year, and had the league's best player in Sylvan Ebanks-Blake. It is said that McCarthy's experience of his last season at this level with Sunderland will help him; yet he hasn't learned the lessons of that campaign. The side is primarily made up of upper level Championship players such as Ebanks-Blake, and lower level Premiership campaigners as Kevin Doyle.

Birmingham meanwhile, have failed to significantly improve their squad, with Christian Benitez being the headline signing. He could be good, but coming from South America, he may have trouble adapting quickly to the league. That said, Alex McLeish's side were better than their 18th place finish of two year's ago suggests, and they still have the quality they had then to survive this time around.

As for Burnley, I personally believe they will survive. They beat Arsenal and Chelsea's reserves last year in the Carling Cup, demonstrating their ability given the relative strength of these particular reserve teams. They also beat a very good Fulham side and came back from 4-1 down to almost humble Tottenham having won 3-0 in 90 minutes in the semi finals. This demonstrated their fighting spirit. They demonstrated in those games an ability to press hard, play at a fast pace, mix it up and fight until the end. More than that, they passed the ball brilliantly, keeping the ball on the floor and playing expansive, intelligent football. Martin Paterson and Chris Eagles are individuals of great individual and technical quality. This side shouldn't even be involved in the relegation battle; they are better than at least five Premiership sides.

On that note, these are my predictions for the coming campaign. Liverpool to win the league, Arsenal second, United third, Chelsea fourth. Everton fifth, Man City sixth, Spurs seventh, Villa eighth, and Fulham ninth. At the bottom, I expect Wolves to finish bottom, joined in the bottom three by Portsmouth. Hull and Birmingham will fight out the final spot, with the former failing where they succeeded last year with a similarly dramatic finale.

Then again, what do I know?