World Cup Preview – Europe

Football Nation’s Stephen Turner looks ahead to the World Cup Play-offs for the remaining European clubs.

It’s all or nothing for eight sides across Europe this week as the runners-up from the group stages battle it out to become one of four qualifers for next summer’s World Cup. FIFA’s controversial decision to seed the draw means that Portugal, France, Greece and Russia are favourites to progress, but nothing can be taken for granted as Ireland, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Slovenia will all be confident of causing an upset. The games all take place on Saturday, November 14th (details of times below – all GMT), and the return leg will take place on Wednesday, November 18th.

Russia v Slovenia – 4.00 pm

The general consensus seems to be that this is perhaps the easiest of the playoffs to call; in fact, it is the only game on Saturday for which our pundits have unanamously agreed on the outcome in our Predictions League. Slovenia have every reason to be confident themselves, however; finishing above both Poland and the Czech Republic in the group stages was no mean feat and they will fancy their chances again here.

Their status as underdogs may well play to Slovenia’s advantage, especially away from home. With only four goals conceded, they had the best defensive record in Europe (apart from the Netherlands, who played two games fewer), so their best bet may be to shut up shop and hope to sneak a crucial away goal on Saturday. This is easier said than done against the highly-talented Russian attack however, and keeping the likes of Andrei Arshavin quiet will not be easy. That said, if they can manage it they have every chance of sneaking a goal; with ten different goalscorers during qualifying so far, goals can literally come from anywhere on the pitch.

Russia themselves will approach the game knowing anything less than a win will be considered a failure. With the talent at their disposal and Guus Hiddink at the helm they should be in South Africa next summer, and were unlucky to be drawn in the same group as the impressively consistent Germans in the group stages. Russia don’t tend to travel well, so will be aiming to win by at least two goals here. While breaching the Slovenian defence has proved difficult so far, any side with Arshavin pulling the strings should be confident of scoring against any opposition.

Prediction: 3-0 – With 37 places between them in the FIFA rankings (the largest gap of the four playoff games), Russia should have the class to win this one. An away goal for Slovenia would make the second leg interesting, but will probably be the best they can hope for in Moscow.

Greece v Ukraine – 6.00 pm

On paper this is by far the closest match-up of the four games, but to use the old cliche, football isn’t played on paper. Greece’s ranking is still inflated by their unexpected Euro 2004 triumph, and for a side ranked 16th in the world they certainly made hard work out of a group containing average to mediocre international sides such as Switzerland, Latvia and Israel. Ukraine had a far more difficult task, and are in their current position by virtue of the fact that they finished above Croatia in qualifying.

While Saturday’s game may be quite even, I expect the over-achieving Greek side to be found out when they travel to Kiev next week. With home advantage, however, they will fancy their chances. A clean sheet may be the most important factor for Greece; even a 0-0 draw would give them a fighting chance on Wednesday. With ten goals conceded (the second-worst record of the eight sides in the playoffs) in a group that arguably did not contain one world-class striker, even this may be beyond them.

Ukraine themselves will be happy to get this one out of the way, and would probably be happy enough with a draw, although an away goal or two would be ideal. In Andrei Shevchenko, they have a striker who has something to prove and who may also be looking to end his career on a high next summer. They will be fully aware that Greece have not won a competitive game against opposition of their standard since winning Euro 2004, and have every reason to be confident of a win over two legs.

Prediction: 1-1 – Neither side will be too unhappy with a draw, although Greece would obviously prefer a scoreless one. With Shevchenko lining up for the opposition, however, I cannot see this happening.

Ireland v France – 8.00 pm

Although France are clear favourites with the bookies in this one, I actually expect this to be the tightest of the four ties. With the likes of Thierry Henry, Nicolas Anelka and Karim Benzema at their disposal, France should be confident of progression, but then again the same could have been said almost two years ago when they were drawn in a group where Serbia were the closest of a group of distant rivals for top spot. France have underachieved since then however, while the Irish side have arguably overachieved in the same period, going unbeaten in the group stages and comfortably finishing second in a group in which they were seeded third.

While it is players who make the difference on the pitch, this tie could well be decided by the abilities of the two opposing managers. Giovanni Trappatoni has stamped his authority on the Irish side, turning them into a well-organised outfit capable of matching any international side on their day. He has found controversy and success in equal measures, the controversy most notably by repeatedly leaving the in-form Andy Reid out of the squad, but nobody can argue with his results. Nothing illustrates the Irish side’s turnaround under Trappatoni more clearly than their recent victories over Cyprus; in their previous qualifying campaign they recorded a home draw and a 5-2 defeat away to the same opposition. Ireland are now a competitive international side again, however, and any side that can go unbeaten in a group containing the reigning world champions cannot be ruled out.

France, however, can only imagine what a manager like Trappatoni would bring to their team. For now, however, they are stuck with the hugely unpopular Raymond Domenech. Nothing illustrates this better than his appearance at a recent tennis tournament in Paris. His appearance on the big screen was met with boos by the French crowd, while senior players such as Henry laughed. Rumour has it that Henry is virtually running the team himself, and while this might be enough to ensure a playoff spot ahead of the likes of Austria and Ukraine in the group stages, they could well come unstuck against an organised Irish side. That said, however, results have improved for the French recently, and they have scored eight goals in their last two games. It should not be forgotten either that they remained unbeaten in qualifying after their defeat to Austria in their first game.

Prediction: 0-0 – With a joint record of 19 competitive games undefeated, a draw seems the most likely result, and both sides will be reasonably happy with a clean sheet here.

Portugal v Bosnia-Herzegovina – 8.30 pm

Another one that looks simple on paper, but another tough one to call. Portugal will be favourites, especially at home, but they were underwhelming in their qualifying group, with only two wins from their final two games saving them from a disastrous fourth-place finish. Carlos Queiroz is yet to convince as an international manager, and with Cristiano Ronaldo and Jose Bosingwa absent through injury many feel that this task could be a step too far for his side.

Bosnia-Herzegovina, however, are somewhat of an unknown quantity. What we do know is that they virtually guarantee goals. During the group stages they both scored and conceded more goals than any other side in the playoffs, and their games averaged a stunning 3.8 goals per game. With Edin Dzeko (14 goals in 21 caps) and Zlatan Muslimovic (13 in 19) leading the line they will be confident of grabbing an away goal or two, and will be hoping that Portugal cannot expose their frailties in defence.

There is, however, a huge question mark over whether or not Portugal can take advantage of this weakness. Portugal is not a country with a reputation for producing great goalscorers, as anyone who watched the blatantly average Pauleta lead the line for the first half of this decade will testify, and with Ronaldo on the sidelines, I can see Portugal struggle for goals. With this in mind, I have a feeling that a surprise could be on the cards here.

Prediction: 1-1 – With the strikeforce they have, I cannot see Bosnia-Herzegovina failing to score, but at the same time I cannot see Portugal losing at home, and with Ricardo Carvalho and Pepe in the centre of defence, they should be able to keep damage to a minimum. The obvious conclusion, therefore, is a score draw, which should make for an exciting second leg.

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