The deja vu is really kicking in. It's Arsenal against Bayern Munich in the Champions League once again. Depending on your approach, it’s either a glorious rematch or a tedious sequel to a storyline that has been done far too many times.

Arsene Wenger is probably sick of the sight of Thomas Muller, Arjen Robben and Bayern’s exceptionally talented squad. Carlo Ancelotti, one would imagine, is indifferent to the whole situation. If asked what he thought about playing Arsenal it would surely warrant no more than a trademark eyebrow raise and some pleasantries, before sending his team out with the intention of scoring six. The Italian led a Chelsea team to the double – which obviously makes him a real favourite amongst Arsenal fans – but has not had the smoothest sailing in Germany so far.

Bayern are, by common recognition, not playing to the standard expected of them. Having briefly been embroiled in a title battle with the controversial upstarts Red Bull Leipzig, Bayern have produced some chaotic performances and been short of their dominant selves. Even with such concerns over their form, they lead the Bundesliga by seven points and have won 15 of their 20 league matches to date.

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Its not like Bayern are ice cold coming into this encounter, either. Unconvincing at times, yes, but the German club are far from a point of disaster. Ancelotti, though, knows he will be judged on his Champions League performance. Anything other than progression to the final will be deemed a failure for a club demanding of success each season. Arsenal will just be desperate to escape the tedium of last 16 elimination and show they can compete into April and May.

The Gunners have recent experience of Bayern. Their last meeting ended in an emphatic 5-1 victory for the Bundesliga side, but both teams have evolved since then. Although Bayern will still dominate the ball – they average 64.5% possession in the Bundesliga – they are willing to play riskier passes, which is reflected in their lower pass accuracy. Offensively they have been less efficient, however, creating fewer clear opportunities per match.

Setting up in a 4-3-3, Ancelotti’s team will use Philipp Lahm and David Alaba almost as wingers in possession, with Thomas Muller given the freedom to roam into pockets of space in the final third. Xabi Alonso will set and protect the central defenders, with Thiago allowed to carry the ball through the middle third and play line-breaking passes. Arturo Vidal provides the engine and third man runs from deep.

As alien as it is for this Arsenal team, they must drop deeper without the ball and allow Bayern to retain possession. The key is to close down the spaces between their lines and avoid Alonso or Thiago playing through passes behind their defence. Laurent Koscielny and Shkodran Mustafi have the defensive capability to nullify Robert Lewandowski, but the defence must find a way to pick up Muller.

Arsenal’s best hope of remaining solid out of possession is to match Bayern up in midfield. Switching from 4-2-3-1 to a 4-3-3 gives an extra body centrally and a sturdy base for the team to spring attacks from. With Mohamed Elneny and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain flanking Granit Xhaka in central midfield, the Gunners would have the energy to break quickly along with the power to harass Bayern’s midfielders.

Mesut Ozil could play a role from the right flank if Wenger starts him, but he may be best used as an impact substitute. Alaba is a great threat for Bayern, whoever plays on Arsenal’s right flank must not only work hard, but be very aware of the Austrian at all points. Focussing on quick attacking transitions, leaving Ozil out for Danny Welbeck or Theo Walcott would provide balance and maybe even peg Alaba’s attacking instincts back.

A minor change in shape, complemented by a more significant adaptation of their approach can be a recipe for success at the Allianz for Arsenal. Bayern are weaker than before, Arsenal have a stronger squad than their previous encounters, but without adapting to the opponent Arsenal will struggle.

Arsenal can win this game, but only if they adapt their game. The trouble is, Arsene Wenger doesn't do that very often.

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