This article is part of Football FanCast’s Opinion series, which provides analysis, insight and opinion on any issue within the beautiful game, from Paul Pogba’s haircuts to League Two relegation battles…
Leeds are in a very comfortable position at the moment as they sit 11 points clear of third place and we’re almost at the halfway point of the season.
Of course, every Leeds fan will remember last season’s complete and utter capitulation that cost them in the second half of last season as they were consigned to the playoffs after a poor end to the season.
One user of the online forum Waccoe put together the data showing that Leeds do often fall apart at the end of seasons, but curiously it showed that United may have already surmounted too big of a lead for them to bottle it at this point.
The table shows the number of points per game that Leeds fall off on average during every season they’ve spent in the Championship since their relegation.
As you can see, Leeds’ bottling capabilities really came into effect after their promotion from League One as they’ve been worse in the second half of the campaign every year except for one since their return in the 2010/11 season.
Indeed, Leeds are on average 0.313 points per game worse off in the second half of campaigns, but if they stick to that average this season they may already be too far ahead for any team to catch them.
The Yorkshire club have an 11 point lead, and if they were to be 0.313 points per game worse off from now until the end of the season that would see them earn 7.825 fewer points, which isn’t enough for any to overcome the current 11 point gap unless a side below them goes on a miracle run.
Of course, they could bottle it harder than ever before, or a team below them could go on a run that exceeds anything we’ve ever seen, but United are seemingly able to drop off as much as they usually do and still end up promoted at the end of the season.