Having won just once since the turn of the year you’d be forgiven for not fancying Leeds to pick up three points anywhere at the moment.
Indeed, Leeds are in poor form, winning just once in 2020 and, on paper, it looks as though they’ve got another tough game this weekend as they face seventh-placed Bristol City, who could go level on points with the Whites if they manage to win at Elland Road.
On face value it’s another daunting task, but when you look a little deeper this has the potential to be one of Leeds’ easiest wins of the season.
Not only did Leeds completely outplay Lee Johnson’s men on the opening day with a 3-1 win at Ashton Gate, but a look at the xG table shows the true gulf in class between these two sides.
The Yorkshire club top the table by some way, but their poor finishing throughout the season has cost them dearly, so in reality, they’re currently sitting just three points off seventh place.
On the other hand Bristol’s xG is poor and according to the alternative XG table they sit in 22nd place.
But in reality their league position is still strong, indicating that they’re getting lucky at both ends of the pitch.
The Robins are a true mathematical anomaly, and you wouldn’t expect that to be sustainable.
Leeds have the ability to absolutely blow Bristol away on Saturday, and while coming up against a team that have won five of their last six games looks a scary prospect, the fact of the matter is that they’re not as good as the league table would have you believe.
If xG is anything to go by, Saturday’s clash should only be going one way.