In the Champions League Final, all eyes were on Liverpool as they went head to head with Tottenham. It was an intense 90 minutes and by half time, we’re sure those that had placed their bets on Tottenham were beginning to work up a sweat. Whilst the odds were in both Liverpool and Tottenham’s favour pre-game, it sometimes pays to place your bets on the most positive outcome, despite which team you’re convinced are going to win.
Although, with centrepiece events like the Champions League Final, you’ll notice that new UK casinos will contain headline offers. For example, if you visit the right site at the right time, you could get special offers like Liverpool to win at 10/1 for new customers. Clearly, these odds are far better than anything you would typically find – that’s where affiliate sites can be so helpful, they list all of the best offers in one place. Basically, avoid getting too comfortable with one bookie and keep your eyes open for special offers.
Choosing figures over your sports knowledge
Whilst it can be tempting to go with your gut instinct and bet on the team you think are most likely to win, relying on your sports knowledge alone can often be a lucky bettor’s greatest downfall.
Statistics show that the best way to make money over an extended period of betting is to bet on positive value. What is positive value you ask? Positive value exists when the probability of a wager winning is greater than the probability reflected in the odds. To work on this concept, you need to be able to work out if the wager is more or less likely to win that the odds suggest.
Here’s a simple formula for working it out…
You want to be betting on team or player with positive value, meaning the chances of them winning are greater than the implied probability of the odds. To calculate the implied probability, you can use this formula …
(1/odds) x 100
This will give you the implied probability of the odds as a percentage, which makes it easier to work with. Let’s apply this formula to an example…
Take a look at the first available bet on Atteq and D Nolan, the chances of Atteq winning the bet is 3.75. You can use this handy conversion table for reference.
Applying the formula to the following odds would look like this
(1/3.75) x 100
Following this formula, the odds are 26.6%. Compare this with the actual probability and if the actual probability is of greater value than the implied probability, then you’re on to a winner.
Determining the actual probability
Now you’ll see that finding the implied probability is easy, but determining the actual probability is tricky, as you’ve only got your best bet to go by. The best advice here is only to carry out efficient research and analysis to be able to determine the most accurate actual probability.
There must be a catch right?
Of course, when you can work out the value of the odds as explained above, you’re on the path to success, and that’s not going to be profitable for the vendor. This means that sometimes you’ll find that value is hard to find, particularly within the sports betting industry, as the bookmakers can be fairly crafty. The key here is to ONLY put your money where you can find positive value!
The purpose of finding value in the odds is to make sure you only bet when the odds are in your favour, and as the bookmakers are in this game to make money, they’ll do what they can to give very little away. Whilst finding a bet with positive value can be a little time consuming, in the end it’s worth it as if you choose to bet even, it’s been a complete waste of time.
Lesson learnt = Always find positive value in your bet
Finding the right place to place your bets!
These days there are so many casinos, and especially if you’re doing it online then it can be tricky to know where to place your bets. Comparison websites are the best place to look.
Give it a go
Now that you’re clued up on how to play to win consistently by choosing the best with positive value, it’s time to give it a try and see for yourself how to find the best odds this season. May the odds be ever in your favour!