After five years together, this summer represents an integral crossroads in the relationship between Arsenal Football Club and Olivier Giroud.
Staring down one path is the France international, who has already admitted he can’t stomach another season as a bit-part commodity in Arsene Wenger’s plans. But gazing in the opposite direction towards the horizon of domestic revival are Arsenal, who appear convinced the rebuild after missing out on Champions League football for the first time under Wenger’s generation-spanning tutelage requires a new spearhead in attack.
They’re already working on deals for for Kylian Mbappe, at this point unquestionably the most exciting young centre-forward in Europe, and their next best alternative, Lyon’s Alexandre Lacazette.
"I will put up with the transfer market. I will discuss with the coach but he is relying on me.
"It is true that I have had limited playing time but it was for a certain amount of time, it is true there were things against me. I will not settle for another year with such little playing time. I will have to think carefully to consider it with my relatives and my advisers.
"It will be a decision that will be maturely thought about to have more playing time. I feel good here, I want to win the Premier League with Arsenal.
"But I don't know what the future holds."
On the surface, that would suggest Giroud’s stint in north London has been a failure. He was acquired from Montpellier in 2012 to score the goals that would make Arsenal the Premier League’s most dominant force but from five attempts, he’s yet to fire the Gunners to even a half-convincing distance from the English title.
In fact, Giroud’s never scored more than 16 goals in a single Premier League campaign; in that time, no side has won the Premier League title without their top scorer netting at least 20. Arsenal, meanwhile, have finished each season 12.6 points off the top flight's summit on average.
Yet, to label Giroud’s Arsenal career so negatively so swiftly would be superficial. His five years at the Emirates Stadium have contained spectacular moments, scintillating goals and telling contributions that have got Arsenal over the line in countless crucial encounters.
Should they sign Mbappe, Lacazette or another top-class striker this summer at the expense of letting Giroud leave, the Gunners may soon come to regret not being privy to a man of the 30-year-old's rather unique services. Here's why.
Of course, strike-rates are what every centre-forward is inevitably judged upon and in the grand scheme of things, Giroud’s does leave something to be desired.
A return of 98 in 226 games is certainly not to be sniffed at, especially considering Giroud hasn’t been a guaranteed starter over the last few seasons, yet it’s not as glamorous as you’d expect from a front-man at a club of Arsenal’s stature either.
Working out at one goal per 2.3 appearances, the ratios of Sergio Aguero, Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Diego Costa throughout their spells at their current clubs are considerably superior.
But Giroud comes with his own sets of caveats, some justifiably imposed upon him because of his unspectacular returns and others arguably unfairly. For starters, he’s rarely had the luxury of being Arsenal’s designated penalty taker, a factor that has undoubtedly impacted his overall tally, and unlike some other strikers in the Premier League such as Kane and Aguero, Giroud’s goals have come across a far more even spread of games.
Hat-tricks and even braces have been few and far between; whilst some would argue that puts question marks over the 30-year-old’s natural scoring credentials, it also suggests his goals have influenced a larger number of games compared some of his contemporaries, who tend to rack up four or five against the Premier League’s rank and file.
Perhaps most importantly, in terms of time spent on the pitch, Giroud’s Arsenal outings actually amount to just 165 full ninety minutes, which puts his haul of 98 in a far better light. Likewise, his minutes-per-goals ratio for Arsenal stands at 151 minutes per goal, better than one in two.
In the Premier League it’s 199 minutes per goal, ranking him 24th in the all-time charts. For 2016/17 alone, it was 100 minutes per goal – only bettered by three players (Harry Kane, Gabriel Jesus and Michy Batshuayi) throughout the entire division.
Indeed, although he ended the campaign with just 16 goals across all competitions, his worst return to date for Arsenal and therefore a strong argument that this summer is the inevitable time to sell, 2016/17 was the season we saw Giroud at arguably his most clinical. He produced his best-ever shooting accuracy in the Premier League, 59%, and his strongest shots-to-goals ratio, netting with every 3.25 efforts. His next best return was a distant five from 2014/15.
That efficiency is arguably most evident when looking at Giroud’s performances from the bench last term, not only leading the division in terms of goals with six but also goals contributed to – eight when his assists are thrown into the equation as well. But upon closer inspection, those kinds of clinical contributions have been a recurring theme throughout Giroud’s Arsenal career – they just haven’t always got the credit they deserve.
Of his 98 Gunners goals, 31 have been game-winning strikes – defined as goals that put Arsenal into what proves to be a winning lead – 19 have come against the teams to have finished in last season’s top seven, dispelling the long-standing myth of Giroud failing to deliver in big games, and 27 have hit the net in either the last 15 minutes or stoppage time, the period when most Premier League games are decided.
Furthermore, the quality of Giroud's goals must not go unmentioned. For a striker a shy in terms of overall output, some of his goals have been nothing short of unstoppable worldies. Take the scorpion kick against Crystal Palace last season, his deft six-yard-box touch and half-volley against West Ham, his stunning turn and shot to punish Liverpool or looking further afield, his swerving strike past Sweden during the current international break. It takes a vastly talented player to score those goals.
Whilst Giroud may not be a great goalscorer in the traditional sense of the phrase, he is clearly a scorer of not only great goals but most crucially, influential goals. From the 80 games in which Giroud has scored in for Arsenal, they’ve picked up 2.45 points on average, with only 18 not ending in victory and just six ending in defeat. In short, when Giroud scores, his goals tend to make a big difference come the final scoreline.
Those might not only change perspectives amongst the Arsenal fan base, who have been largely divided on Giroud through his five-term stint, but also suggest the club’s focus in the transfer market should be a little different to what is being discussed in the tabloids.
Although the Gunners would obviously benefit from finding a prolific goalscorer this summer, they need to a prolific goalscorer whose goals count for something more than simply rankings in the Premier League's Golden Boot race.
A simple declaration perhaps, but the subtle difference could be what decides whether Wenger’s next star striker takes the club forward or another step back. The grass isn't always greener; Giroud's departure this summer could soon lead to the realisation of how important he's actually been for Arsenal over the last five years.