The maths behind Harry Kane’s goals: Why he could be the man to eclipse Alan Shearer

Harry Kane has had another stellar season for Tottenham, and is one of his country’s key men too. It is hard to believe he is still only 23.

Following his first season with Spurs, many people thought he would be another ‘one season wonder’, but how wrong they were. After his third season in a row as Tottenham’s top scorer, having won the Premier League Golden Boot in the last two seasons, he has established himself as one of the very best in the world.

Kane is not just a goal scorer, but has a brilliant overall game. He links play, particularly with one of England’s other top players in Dele Alli, and is part of every move: even if he is not the one to provide the final touch, he will undoubtedly have been involved in the build-up. His physicality and work ethic make him the ideal frontman for the modern game.

He has also been captain of Tottenham on multiple occasions and carries the pressure of being the main man for Spurs with aplomb. Whenever they are in need of a goal, he is man they turn to, and he very rarely fails to deliver.

So good has he been since a string of loans came to end and he established himself at the top of the Premier League, many pundits and fans have looked ahead to a potential breaking of Alan Shearer’s record of 260 goals in the Premier League.

Shearer achieved the record whilst winning the league title with Blackburn and playing for boyhood team Newcastle United. Whilst Kane is yet to win a trophy, that will surely come in time.

It is not just the overall goal record either. With six hat-tricks to his name thus far, including two in the last two games of this season, he only needs five more to equal that record too, which is also held by Shearer.

But it is the goal record that he will most want to beat. That is the main, longstanding record, and whilst that would take a monumental effort, the numbers back him to do it.

Taking the last three campaigns as the benchmark, since he burst onto the scene, Kane has averaged exactly 25 Premier League goals per season. Given that in 2016/17 he spent time on the treatment table, missing eight league games through injury, that figure would surely be higher with a bit more luck.

If Kane was to remain in the Premier League for his whole career – and with a strong allegiance to Tottenham that is far from out of the question, especially since they are a side on the up under Mauricio Pochettino – the early signs are that he is the man to beat Shearer.

Extrapolating the data shows that if he were to continue scoring at a rate of 25 goals per league season, he would surpass Shearer in eight seasons’ time. By then he would only be 31. Even averaging slightly less than 25, it would be realistic for him as he will play long into his thirties.

Kane is a determined player and will strive to be at the top for as long as he can. If he steers clear of injuries, there is every chance he will break the record eventually.

Perhaps the biggest threat to him not achieving the record would be a move abroad. Keep up the impressive work and there is no doubt that sides like Real Madrid will circle.

That would be a difficult proposition to turn down, but if he did, Alan Shearer might have to look over his shoulder. Spurs fans will certainly hoping he does.