As embattled Swansea prepare to take on Cardiff in the South Wales derby, the Betfair Belief Barometer – based on Cash Out data from the season so far – shows that their fans may be losing the faith in their side to close out results.
Behavioural analysis of the Cash Out data shows that nearly 7,000 Swansea fans on Betfair (9.9%), or nearly a third of the Liberty Stadium, have ‘Cashed Out’ on their team before the end of the game.
In comparison only 4,000 Bluebird supporters on Betfair (8.9%) have Cashed Out on their team before a game has finished, despite them languishing in the relegation zone.
Cardiff fans faith in their team is likely to be accentuated further with new loan signing Wilfried Zaha likely to start this weekend’s derby. He lifted the Bluebirds off the bottom of the Premier League by inspiring a vital 2-1 win over Norwich on his debut from the bench last weekend, and with him starting fan faith will surely continue to rise.
In comparison, the Swans may be feeling a little blue for this weekend’s clash after the sacking of manager Michael Laudrup. The club have been feeling the increased pressure of late, having won just one of their last 10 Premier League games.
In a further twist, additional Betfair data – from their ‘sell your star’ research – also revealed that the average fans would sell Swansea’s Michu for is £14m, despite the fact he was touted as a £30m+ player last season before his poor form this season.
Meanwhile 63% of Cardiff fans stated they would swap midfielder Gary Medel for a change back to their traditional blue home kit.
Betfair Spokesman Barry Orr commented today: “Swansea could really do with Delia Smith’s “twelfth man” at the moment, but Betfair data indicates fans are starting to lose the faith. Our Cash Out data is starting to give really interesting insights on the confidence of club’s fans throughout a season.”
Betfair’s Cash Out product uses an algorithm to offer those who have placed bets on a team the chance to take a reduced amount of their winnings before the game has finished – a true test of a fan putting their money where your mouth is and the belief they have in their team to see out a result.