Although the wheels have not yet come off Liverpool’s season, one point from the last six available has shown how the bolts keeping them on are wiggling a little loose.
In Jurgen Klopp they have a manager on hand with the necessary spanner to tighten them up, but the German needs to act quickly to ensure a loss at Bournemouth and a draw at home to struggling West Ham will not prove to be two key events as the Merseysiders look for a first ever Premier League title.
Ordinarily, such results would not be seen as a major issue, But with Chelsea having won nine matches on the spin and Arsenal having also shown title-winning form of late, there is a danger that any more slips will render the gap between Liverpool and the summit of the division too great to bridge.
So, travelling to Middlesbrough’s Riverside Stadium has suddenly become a crucial game in the club’s season. The newly-promoted Teessiders have made a solid, if unspectacular, start to their first campaign back in the top flight, but impressive draws at Manchester City and Arsenal show that they are somewhat set-up to take advantage of the bigger boys.
However, we think Liverpool will get back to winning ways in the North East, and here are THREE stats to back that up…
Shot-shy Boro, frugal Liverpool
Interestingly, this game at the Riverside Stadium sees the team that take the fewest shots come up against the team that concede the fewest shots. Boro are the division’s most reluctant team when it comes to pulling the trigger with just 9.2 efforts-per-game fired at goal, while Liverpool have only allowed, on average, the ball to be aimed at their own goal 7.8 times-a-game.
Looking at this, it seems that Boro are unlikely to test Loris Karius, or whoever starts in the Reds’ goal, too often. The fewer shots there are taken, the less likely the ball is to hit the back of the net - that’s just plain mathematics.
Perhaps somewhat contrary to Liverpool’s ability to prevent efforts on their goal, they have conceded 20 in 15 games, the highest of any side in the division’s top six and more than Boro’s 16 over the same period.
Playing the passes…
In terms of average possession, Boro sit firmly in midtable with their 48.8% of the ball the 11th highest in the division. Liverpool, meanwhile, are 10.1% better off with 58.9%, so it would seem that Klopp’s men will have the bulk of the play, even though they are the away team on Teesside.
Delving a little further into the numbers, Liverpool are well set up to take advantage of this with no team in the Premier League able to better their 9,151 passes played across 15 games. Jordan Henderson has played the most with 1,323 – another division high.
It’s not a possession for possession’s sake either, with the high-flyers having hit more shots at goal than any other team (280), while creating more chances (227) than any of their divisional rivals. Unsurprisingly, Klopp’s men have also netted the most goals of any Prem team (37).
Long-ball Boro
Looking at Boro’s passing in detail, it’s clear to see that a high quantity of Aitor Karanka’s team’s balls go from back to front - only Burnley and Crystal Palace have played more long balls than Middleborough’s 76.
Typically, this approach makes sense for the Teessiders, but with Alvaro ‘The Beast’ Negredo a serious doubt for the game at the Riverside Stadium, there’s every chance that Jordan Rhodes will lose the bulk of his aerial battles with Joel Matip, who has won, on average, 2.4 battles in the air-per-game this term.