When building a house of cards, it’s the collapse which is devastating. That it shouldn’t come as any surprise doesn’t seem to matter.

At Newcastle United this week, that collapse appears to be starting. But if it is, it won't be instant: it'll be a slow-motion slide towards something surely sinister. Magpies fans have been here before, worse in fact. But perhaps rarely as disappointingly as this, for this seemed genuine. And this isn’t just a let-down: it’s journey into peril. Again.

In October, Mike Ashley had publicly stated that he wanted to sell and since then had been in negotiations with Amanda Staveley and her company. This week, the plug was all but pulled. The Newcastle owner ended the talks with the prospective buyer and characterised the process as a “waste of time”. There’s a possibility Staveley comes back with all the money Ashley desires, but you mention that as a technicality - it’s certainly not the likely outcome.

The thing is, in this case Ashley is right, though perhaps not in the way he meant it. This wasn’t just a distraction from the business of running a football team, or indeed anything else he might prefer to be doing. This was something that diverted attention away from the very urgent work needed to build a team which can compete in the Premier League, something Newcastle are dangerously close to lacking.

It didn't distract all of the attention, mind. Everyone could see the problems the Magpies would have this season given their squad. All except the person who seemed to matter. The one with the money.

And yet despite every negative comment about a team which clearly isn't a vintage, we have to separate fact from fiction. Rafael Benitez’s side may not be the best it could have been if they'd invested properly in the summer, and they might well be relying on a run of results from September to keep them out of trouble, but they certainly aren't in the relegation zone. And that has to be remembered when discussing a side which, for the most part, looks more like one you'd find in the second division than the first.

Above all else, that must be put down to Benitez and his miracles. Good organisation can keep a Championship side in the Premier League. So can heart and desire, the kind of thing that rouses the St James’ Park crowd, and that makes it an intimidating place to play football. It can be intimidating for those in black and white Even during their bad run they haven’t totally switched off. And Benitez is arguably the common factor there.

But just a glance at the squad shows it’s not good enough to stay up indefinitely. A season season scraping safety would be enable a fresh start again in the summer, but in the meantime, relegation is a serious threat, especially if Rafael Benitez decides that enough is enough.

After all, selling a Premier League football club in this day and age, with the TV money it brings in and the passionate one-club-town fanbase that a city like Newcastle has shouldn’t really be a tough sell. But when you throw in a manager who won the Champions League with Liverpool and La Liga with Valencia, and is a former Real Madrid and Inter Milan manager, it surely gets sweeter.

Without him, though, relegation looks more likely, and then Newcastle become just another big Championship club with lots of fans again: and they don’t sell nearly as well.

And so the question really does have to be why that didn’t happen last summer?

Obviously the answer is business interests and intrigue - whatever you want to call it. But just don't call it the best interests of the club; how can a useable strike force of Dwight Gayle and Joselu be in the best interests of any Premier League side? If anyone's interests were considered, they were those of Ashley - a man who didn’t want to invest in a club he was going to sell, and who therefore wouldn’t see the benefits of his money.

In a way, that’s fair enough. I wouldn’t want to do that with my money either. You can argue that by investing an extra £30m the value of the club goes up accordingly or perhaps even more. But in the end, that's not a guarantee.

The problem is, if you’re going to do that you have to accept that it’s a gamble. And if you lose a bet, you have to pay up: that’s what needs to happen now. Is there money to spend in January? If not, will Benitez stay or give up on a club and its owner who seemingly promised him a club he could build into a top one, but who now has no way of proving it? If that happens, can Newcastle stay up without him?

Those are the stakes, and they’re high ones. Newcastle fans wanted this takeover deal to happen so much because they want rid of Ashley. But with hindsight, you wonder if it may also have been tinged with a realisation that if it didn’t go through, this would be the situation, scrambling around at the last minute in January to plug the obvious gaps.

A year and a half ago, Hull City made a similar gamble and they lost, too. They aren’t the same thing - when January came, the Yorkshire club seemed certain for the drop and even by giving them a fighting chance Marco Silva became a sought after manager. But they’re close enough to show the problem. Hull lost the same gamble and couldn’t recover. That Newcastle's situation isn't quite so hopeless doesn’t mean it’s not dangerous.

This is, to all intents and purposes, a house of cards that Mike Ashley has built. When a club arrives in the Premier League the goal should be to have an exciting season back in the big time and stay up, ready to progress further the next year.

For Ashley, the goal was simply to sell the club for as much as possible, investing as little as possible. But unlike cards, if a collapse does come, this one will be slow and painful.

https://video.footballfancast.com/video-2015/rafa-facts-5.mp4